Estimating US persistent and transitory monetary shocks: implications for monetary policy

This paper proposes an estimation method for persistent and transitory monetary shocks using the monetary policy modeling proposed in Andolfatto et al, [Journal of Monetary Economics, 55 (2008), pp.: 406-422]. The contribution of the paper is threefold: a) to deal with non-Gaussian innovations, we consider a convenient reformulation of the state-space representation that enables us to use the Kalman filter as an optimal estimation algorithm. Now the state equation allows expectations play a significant role in explaining the future time evolution of monetary shocks; b) it offers the possibility to perform maximum likelihood estimation for all the parameters involved in the monetary policy, and c) as a consequence, we can estimate the conditional probability that a regime change has occurred in the current period given an observed monetary shock. Empirical evidence on US monetary policy making is provided through the lens of a Taylor rule, suggesting that the Fed’s policy was implemented accordingly with the macroeconomic conditions after the Great Moderation. The use of the particle filter produces similar quantitative and qualitative findings. However, our procedure has much less computational cost.Kalman filter, Non-normality, Particle filter, Monetary policy

The effect of the EMU on short and long-run stock market dynamics: New evidence on financial integration

This paper deals with the time evolution of stock market integra- tion around the introduction of the euro. In particular we test whether the degree of integration between the main eurozone countries increased after European monetary union. The contribution of the paper to the extant literature is twofold: a) first, we take into account the poten- tial long-run equilibrium relationship between stock indices allowing for structural changes in the cointegration space that might capture the ef- fect of the introduction of the euro, and b)we formally test the existence of greater financial integration after European monetary union across the main member countries and between these members and the UK. Empirical evidence reveal the existence of long-run equilibrium relation- ships between European stock markets even before the introduction of the euro. Our empirical findings suggest that financial integration is not the direct consequence of the removal of exchange rate risk due to currency unification. Rather, it arises as a result of macroeconomic con- vergence. This aspect is corroborated by the nature of the principal component structure of estimated conditional correlations

On the compensation for illiquidity in sovereign credit markets

This article analyzes the role of liquidity in the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) market. We employ a continuous-time specification to incorporate illiquidity as an additional pricing factor of default swap contracts for the most developed economies. The illiquidity discount process is identified as compensation to investors for the risk of unwinding their positions when trading in the less liquid part of the curve, and the information about illiquidity is directly extracted from the term structure of sovereign CDS spreads. Our empirical findings reveal that a positive time-varying illiquidity premium is embedded in sovereign default swaps. These risk premia exhibit substantial comovement across countries. Only unidirectional causality from default to liquidity is detected for the overall market.We are exceptionally grateful to Jonatan Groba for his valuable comments and suggestions. J.A. Lafuente acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through grant ECO2012-31941, the Generalitat Valenciana through grant PrometeoII/2013/015 and the University Jaume I through grant P1.1A2012-09. P. Serrano acknowl- edges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through grant ECO2012-34268 and from Junta de Andalucía project P12-SEJ-1733

Social Exclusion and Convergence in the EU: An Assessment of the Europe 2020 Strategy

Economic convergence has long been a declared objective of the EU and considered the fundamental mechanism for achieving socioeconomic cohesion. The recent economic crisis had an uneven impact across EU countries and brought a halt to the process of economic and social convergence. In response to this situation, the Europe 2020 strategy, launched in 2010, aimed to deliver social and territorial cohesion in the Member States. In this paper we evaluate the poverty and social exclusion pillar of the Europe 2020 strategy by analysing whether it has promoted convergence across the EU countries in the indicators devised to capture risk of poverty, severe material deprivation, and the number of persons living in households with very low work intensity. Our results for all three rates indicate that convergence occurs in heterogeneous clubs that do not follow a geographic east‒west or south‒north pattern. Convergence within each club, especially for the severe deprivation rate, takes place by means of a catching-up process, with Eastern European levels converging on the Western levels. Finally, not only is there club convergence, but there is no tendency for the clubs to convergence. Poverty and social cohesion indicators show a multi-speed Europe, casting doubt on the sustainability of the overall convergence process in the EU

Liquidity and hedging effectiveness under futures mispricing: International evidence

We analyze the hedging effectiveness of positions that replicate stock indexes using corresponding futures contracts through the application of a dynamic, stochastic hedging strategy proposed by Lafuente, J. A. and Novales, A. (2003). Conclusive gains do not emerge in any of the markets analyzed over the period considered, relative to the use of a constant unit hedge ratio. These findings are consistent with the trend observed in the IBEX 35 futures market study of Lafuente, J. A. and Novales, A. (2003). Our empirical evidence suggests that, contrary to what happens in less liquid markets, the discrepancy between theoretical and quoted prices in index futures contracts in fully developed markets does not represent a noise factor that can be successfully exploited for hedging

Disentangling permanent and transitory monetary shocks with a nonlinear Taylor rule

This article provides an estimation method to decompose monetary policy innovations into persistent and transitory components using the nonlinear Taylor rule proposed in Andolfatto, Hendry, and Moran (2008) [Are inflation expectations rational? Journal of Monetary Economics, 55, 406–422]. To use the Kalman filter as the optimal signal extraction technique, we use a convenient reformulation for the state equation by allowing expectations to play a significant role in explaining the future time evolution of monetary shocks. This alternative formulation allows us to perform the maximum likelihood estimation for all the parameters involved in the monetary policy as well as to recover conditional probabilities of regime change. Empirical evidence on the US monetary policy making is provided for the period covering 1986-Q1 to 2021-Q2. We compare our empirical estimates with those obtained based on the particle filter. While both procedures lead to similar quantitative and qualitative findings, our approach has much less computational cost

Does Perceived Corruption Converge? International Evidence

This article analyses the evolution over time of perceived corruption for a large set of countries worldwide. To proxy corruption, we use the recently proposed Bayesian Corruption Index (Standaert, S. (2015). Divining the level of corruption: A bayesian state space approach, Journal of Comparative Economics, 43(3), 782–803). We employ the test developed by (Phillips, P., & Sul, D. (2007). Transition modeling and econometric convergence tests. Econometrica, 75, 1771–1855) that enables the endogenous determination of convergence clubs for countries over time. Having divided countries into convergence clubs, we explore whether each club differs from the others in terms of their competitiveness ranking. In particular, drawing on the 2019 Global Competitiveness Report, we focus not only on the global competitiveness score, but also on the first and the fifth pillars of competitiveness: institutions and health, respectively. Mean and median scores for clubs confirm the general rule that low perceived corruption levels tend to be associated with high-income countries with established democracies, high-quality healthcare systems, and relatively low-income inequality. However, countries such as Spain and Italy, which are innovation-driven economies with excellent scores in the health pillar, are in the worst club for perceived corruption, suggesting there are additional idiosyncratic aspects that could drive perceived corruption levels

Ibero-American Society of Interventionism (SIDI) and the Spanish Society of Vascular and Interventional Radiology (SERVEI) Standard of Practice (SOP) for the Management of Inferior Vena Cava Filters in the Treatment of Acute Venous Thromboembolism

Vena cava filtersFiltres de vena cavaFiltros de vena cavaObjectives: to present an interventional radiology standard of practice on the use of inferior vena cava filters (IVCFs) in patients with or at risk to develop venous thromboembolism (VTE) from the Iberoamerican Interventional Society (SIDI) and Spanish Vascular and Interventional Radiology Society (SERVEI). Methods: a group of twenty-two interventional radiologist experts, from the SIDI and SERVEI societies, attended online meetings to develop a current clinical practice guideline on the proper indication for the placement and retrieval of IVCFs. A broad review was undertaken to determine the participation of interventional radiologists in the current guidelines and a consensus on inferior vena cava filters. Twenty-two experts from both societies worked on a common draft and received a questionnaire where they had to assess, for IVCF placement, the absolute, relative, and prophylactic indications. The experts voted on the different indications and reasoned their decision. Results: a total of two-hundred-thirty-three articles were reviewed. Interventional radiologists participated in the development of just two of the eight guidelines. The threshold for inclusion was 100% agreement. Three absolute and four relative indications for the IVCF placement were identified. No indications for the prophylactic filter placement reached the threshold. Conclusion: interventional radiologists are highly involved in the management of IVCFs but have limited participation in the development of multidisciplinary clinical practice guidelines

Multiancestry analysis of the HLA locus in Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases uncovers a shared adaptive immune response mediated by HLA-DRB1*04 subtypes

Across multiancestry groups, we analyzed Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) associations in over 176,000 individuals with Parkinson’s disease (PD) and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) versus controls. We demonstrate that the two diseases share the same protective association at the HLA locus. HLA-specific fine-mapping showed that hierarchical protective effects of HLA-DRB1*04 subtypes best accounted for the association, strongest with HLA-DRB1*04:04 and HLA-DRB1*04:07, and intermediary with HLA-DRB1*04:01 and HLA-DRB1*04:03. The same signal was associated with decreased neurofibrillary tangles in postmortem brains and was associated with reduced tau levels in cerebrospinal fluid and to a lower extent with increased Aβ42. Protective HLA-DRB1*04 subtypes strongly bound the aggregation-prone tau PHF6 sequence, however only when acetylated at a lysine (K311), a common posttranslational modification central to tau aggregation. An HLA-DRB1*04-mediated adaptive immune response decreases PD and AD risks, potentially by acting against tau, offering the possibility of therapeutic avenues

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat